HR: 13:30h
AN: OS13B-03
TI: Early detection versus prediction of ocean circulation changes: Implications for the design of observation systems
AU: * Keller, K
EM: kkeller@geosc.psu.edu
AF: Department of Geosciences, Penn State, 208 Deike Building, University Park, PA 16802 United States
AU: McInerney, D
EM: dmcinerney@geosc.psu.edu
AF: Department of Geosciences, Penn State, 411 Deike Building, University Park, PA 16802 United States
AU: Haupt, B
EM: bjhaupt@psu.edu
AF: Department of Geosciences, Penn State, 2217 Earth-Engineering Sciences Building, University Park, PA 16802 United States
AB: Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions may trigger an abrupt and/or hysteresis response of the ocean circulation system. One relevant example for such a threshold response is a potential weakening or collapse of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). Numerous studies have analysed the question of how to design an MOC observation system that would deliver an early warning signal of MOC changes (i.e., before past actions have committed the system to a threshold response). However, detection may be of limited relevance to the prediction question: Whether and when would the MOC cross a critical threshold? Here we test the hypothesis that MOC observation systems designed for early detection of anthropogenic MOC changes would likely fail in the task of early prediction. To test this hypothesis, we virtually deploy candidate observation systems into a simple model that mimics the potential range of future MOC responses. We use this framework to estimate the reliability of candidate observation systems in achieving early detection and prediction.
DE: 1605 Abrupt/rapid climate change
DE: 4260 Ocean data assimilation and reanalysis
DE: 4262 Ocean observing systems
DE: 4263 Ocean predictability and prediction
DE: 6309 Decision making under uncertainty
SC: Ocean Sciences [OS]
MN: Ocean Sciences 2006