## First Modeling Example: The Bathtub

To embark on our modeling adventures, let's begin with a very simple example of a dynamic system - one involving the flow of water in and out of a bathtub. This may not seem too glamorous, but the bathtub is a classic example that most people can relate to with some degree of fondness. The bathtub model will provide a good foundation for investigating more complex models that are more directly related to the global climate system.

Introduction to the Bathtub System

First, a sketch of what this system might look like, for those of you who only take showers:

We have an ordinary tub with a faucet pouring water into the tub and a drain that allows water to flow out of the tub. The faucet is assumed to tap into an infinite source of water; likewise, the drain removes water beyond the confines of the system. You can see that this is an open system rather than a closed system - the ultimate sources and sinks of water are beyond the confines of the system; we're not keeping track of them.

The faucet can be adjusted to supply water at whatever rate of flow we choose. In contrast, the rate of flow through the drain is a function of the size of the drain opening and how much water is in the tub because the weight of the water overlying the drain determines the amount of pressure that is forcing the water through the drain. So, for a given drain size, the more water in the tub, the greater the rate of flow. This set-up we've just described is a dynamic system because material is flowing through the system and the rates of flow and the amount of water in the tub are likely to change over time.

Systems Diagram of the Watertub

Next, we'll represent this system in a different form - a graphical diagram that was created in the program STELLA. The figure below shows the STELLA diagram of this system, consisting of a box called a reservoir (or stock) that represents the water tub, and two pipes called flows that represent the faucet and the drain. Note that the flows have circles attached - these represent valves that control the flow through the faucet and drain. The other feature of this system is an arrow that connects the water tub reservoir to the drain outflow - this is called a connector in STELLA terminology and represents the fact that the rate of flow through the drain is somehow dependent on the amount of water in the reservoir. Note that no material flows through this arrow, instead, it represents a kind of information transfer - the drain flow rate gets information from the reservoir. Also note that the two flows have cloud symbols at the ends away from the tub, indicating that this is an open system, drawing water from some unspecified source, and sending it to an unspecified sink at the other end.

Constructing a STELLA Model of the System

At this point, you should start up the program STELLA and follow along with the instructions below as we create and manipulate the bathtub model. It is possible to follow along without using the program, but it is a good idea to begin getting some experience working with the program.

As with all Macintosh programs, the first step is to double-click on the program icon. When the program first starts. you should see a window like that shown below, in Figure 2.4. If you don't see this same window (minus the comments, of course), you must click on the icons that appear along the left sidebar until the X2 icon appears - then you are in the working mode of the program (the other modes are for viewing the equations or just looking at the model without making any changes).

To create the model of the bathtub, first select the reservoir tool, then move the cursor to the middle of the window, and click on the mouse button to deposit a reservoir. Then, select the flow tool, move the cursor down into the window, positioning it slightly to the left of the reservoir; click and hold the mouse button and drag the cursor into the middle of the reservoir and release the mouse button, making the connection. A cloud symbol should appear on the left side of this flow. Select the flow tool again and position the cursor in the middle of the reservoir before clicking the mouse button. As before, click, hold, and drag the cursor to the right and then let up on the mouse button. The next step is to select the connector tool and position the cursor in the middle of the reservoir and then click, hold, and drag until the arrow tip is in the middle of the circle attached to the drain flow, then release the mouse button and the connection should be made. When you've completed these steps, select each system component by clicking on it and give it a label. By this point, you should have a model that looks similar to the one shown in Figure 2.4.

Note that at first, question marks appear in the reservoir and the two flows. This indicates that we have not assigned any kind of numerical quantity or mathematical expression to these system components. But by double-clicking on these various system components, we can add numbers and/or expressions to eliminate the question marks and make this a fully functional model. To begin with, we'll assign the following numbers or expressions to the system components:

Initial value for the Water Tub reservoir = 10.0 {liters};

Flow rate for the faucet = 1 {liter/second};

Flow rate for the drain = 0.1 * Water Tub {liters/second}.

Be sure to keep track of the units inside of the {} brackets - losing track of the units is one of the most common causes of problems with STELLA models. Note that by choosing liters per second as the flow rate, we have effectively decided that our basic time unit will be one second. All of these numbers are perfectly arbitrary, and the expression for the drain flow rate is just a simple relationship that says the drain flow rate is directly proportional to the amount of water in the tub at any given time - the quantity Water Tub can change through time. Once these values have been assigned, our model is completed and is ready to "run". The model "runs" through time, beginning at time=0 and going as long as we specify. We can set the length of the run by selecting Time Specs from the Run menu. Go ahead and select that command and set the ending time to 60, with a time step or DT of 0.25. What is this DT? It is the increment of time over which the program does the calculations specified by the model, so it is one quarter of a second in our case. This means that the program calculates how much water enters and leaves the bathtub every quarter of a second. So if the faucet flow rate is set to 1 liter/second, the program will add 0.25 liters every quarter of a second or DT. So the smaller the DT, the more calculations are done. When the accounting is done in small increments, the program generally does a better job of simulating the real system. The time step, DT, is an important part of the program to understand - we will have to pay attention to it as we begin modeling the various parts of the climate system.

You may have noticed that in the same window where we set the starting and ending time and the time step, there are many other choices to be made. One of them concerns the units of time - this controls what gets printed out on graphs that display the results of simulations. You can also set the integration method, that the program uses to make the calculations. It is not important that you understand what this means at this point, but for future reference, remember that Euler's method is usually the default method; it is the fastest. The Runge-Kutta methods give more accurate results, but cause the program to run more slowly. It is often a good idea to run your models with a variety of DTs and integration methods to be sure that your results are not an artifact of the calculation method.

Once you have set the time specs, the program is really ready to run. We have two choices for how to observe the evolution of this model - animation of the system components or graphs that plot the values of various system components over time. The animations are not as exciting as you might guess and they are not as informative as the graphs, so we'll ignore them here. Before running the model, we need to make a graph, so select the graph icon from the tool palette and position the cursor somewhere convenient and click on the mouse button to deposit the graph. The program then presents you with a blank graph and you have to tell it what you want to plot by selecting Define Graph from the Edit menu, giving you a window with two columns at the top. Click on water tub in the Allowable column, then click on the >> button immediately to the right of the Allowable column, which moves water tub over to the Selected column. Do the same for faucet and drain so that you have all three in the Selected column; click on the OK button at the bottom of this window when you're finished. Now we are almost ready to run the model, but not quite.

First, think about how this system might evolve - try to predict how the amount of water in the tub, the faucet flow rate, and the drain flow rate will change over time, given the equations listed above. You might represent your prediction in the form of a graph, similar to the one that the program will generate. Once you've made your prediction, you are finally ready to run the model, so select Run from the Run menu and see what happens. Your results should look like the graph shown below in Figure 2.5.

How did you do? Were you able to predict how some or all of the system components changed over time? As you can see (and as I'm sure you all successfully predicted!), nothing changes in this system - the flow rates and the amount in the reservoir are constant through time, so the system is in a steady state. Water is still flowing through this system, but the flow rates and volume in the reservoir remain steady.