D.C. Lafferty, R.L. Sriver, I. Haqiqi, T.W. Hertel, K. Keller and R.E. Nicholas (2021): Statistically bias-corrected and downscaled climate models underestimate the adverse effects of extreme heat on U.S. maize yields. Communications Earth & Environment, 2(1), pp. 1-10, DOI: 10.1038/s43247-021-00266-9.

S.K. Olson, E.A.H. Smithwick, M.S. Lucash, R.M. Scheller, R.E. Nicholas, K.L. Ruckert, and C.M. Caldwell (2021): Landscape-scale forest reorganization following insect invasion and harvest under future climate change scenarios. Ecosystems, DOI: 10.1007/s10021-021-00616-w.

S. Sharma, B.S. Lee, R.E. Nicholas, and K. Keller (2021): A safety factor approach to designing urban infrastructure for dynamic conditions. Earth’s Future, 9(12), e2021EF002118, DOI: 10.1029/2021EF002118.

S. Sharma, M. Gomez, K. Keller, R.E. Nicholas, and A. Mejia (2021): Regional Flood Risk Projections under Climate Change. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 22(9), pp. 2259-2274, DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-20-0238.1.

K. Veltman, C.A. Rotz, L. Chase, J. Cooper, C.E. Forest, P.A. Ingraham, R.C. Izaurralde, C.D. Jones, R.E. Nicholas, M.D. Ruark, W. Salas, G. Thoma, and O. Jolliet (2021): Assessing and reducing the environmental impact of dairy production systems in the northern US in a changing climate. Agricultural Systems, 192, 103170, DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103170.

H. Ye, R.E. Nicholas, S. Roth, and K. Keller (2021): Considering uncertainties expands the lower tail of maize yield projections. PLoS ONE, 16(11), e0259180, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0259180.

L. Iulo, A. Arora, L. Fowler, L. Goldberg, C. Helgeson, K. Keller, R. Nicholas, S. Sharma, N. Tebyanian, N. Tuana, and M. Zarekarizi (2020): Establishing Priorities for Pennsylvania Community Flood Resilience. White paper. Available at

E.E. Hogan, R.E. Nicholas, K. Keller, S. Eilts, and R.L. Sriver (2019): Representation of US Warm Temperature Extremes in Global Climate Model Ensembles. Journal of Climate, 32(9), pp. 2591-2603, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0075.1.

M.S. Lucash, K.L. Ruckert, R.E. Nicholas, R.M. Scheller, E.A.H. Smithwick (2019): Complex interactions among successional trajectories and climate govern spatial resilience after severe windstorms in central Wisconsin, USA. Landscape Ecology, 34, pp. 2897–2915, DOI: 10.1007/s10980-019-00929-1.

E.A.H. Smithwick, C. Caldwell, A. Klippel, R. Scheller, N. Tuana, R.B. Bird, K. Keller, D. Vickers, M. Lucash, R.E. Nicholas, S. Olson, K.L. Ruckert, J. Oyler, C. Helgeson, and J. Huang (2019): Learning About Forest Futures Under Climate Change Through Transdisciplinary Collaboration Across Traditional and Western Knowledge Systems. In S.G. Perz (ed.), Collaboration Across Boundaries for Social-Ecological Systems Science: Experiences Around the World, pp. 153–184, Palgrave Macmillan, DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-13827-1.

C. Hermes, K. Keller, R.E. Nicholas, G. Segelbacher, and H.M. Schaefer (2018): Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Habitat Availability for an Endangered Parakeet. PLoS ONE, 13(1), DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0191773.

J.D. Quinn, P.M. Reed, M. Giuliani, A. Castelletti, J.W. Oyler, and R.E. Nicholas (2018): Exploring How Changing Monsoonal Dynamics and Human Pressures Challenge Multireservoir Management for Flood Protection, Hydropower Production, and Agricultural Water Supply. Water Resources Research, 47, W03501, DOI: 10.1029/2018WR022743.

J.W. Oyler and R.E. Nicholas (2017): Time of Observation Adjustments to Daily Station Precipitation May Introduce Undesired Statistical Issues. International Journal of Climatology, 38: pp. e364-e377, DOI: 10.1002/joc.5377.

N. Berg, D. Knopman, B.F. Hobbs, K. Keller, and R.E. Nicholas (2017): Resilience to a Changing Climate: Chesapeake Bay Watershed Progress, Challenges, Information Gaps, and Opportunities. RAND Perspectives, PE-243-NOAA, DOI: 10.7249/PE243.

M. Haran, W. Chang, K. Keller, R. Nicholas, and D. Pollard (2017): Statistics and the Future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Chance, 30(4), pp. 37-44, DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2017.1406758.

E. Zaveri, D.S. Grogan, K. Fisher-Vanden, S. Frolking, R.B. Lammers, D.H. Wrenn, A. Prusevich and R.E. Nicholas (2016): Invisible water, visible impact: groundwater use and Indian agriculture under climate change. Environmental Research Letters, 11(8), 084005, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084005.

K. Keller and R. Nicholas (2015): “Improving Climate Projections to Better Inform Climate Risk Management,” pp. 9-18 in The Handbook of the Macroeconomics of Climate Change, W. Semmler and L. Bernard, eds. Oxford University Press, URL:

P.J. Applegate, B.R. Parizek, R.E. Nicholas, R.B. Alley, and K. Keller (2015): Increasing Temperature Forcing Reduces the Greenland Ice Sheet’s Response Time Scale. Climate Dynamics, 45, pp. 1-11, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2451-7.

M. Haran, R. Nicholas, and K. Keller (2013): “The Role of Statistics in Sustainability Research.” Invited essay contribution for Mathematics Awareness Month 2013. Online at

R.E. Nicholas and D.S. Battisti (2012): Empirical Downscaling of High-Resolution Regional Precipitation From Large-Scale Reanalysis Fields. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 51(1), pp. 100-114, DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-11-04.1.

R.E. Nicholas and D.S. Battisti (2008): Drought Recurrence and Seasonal Rainfall Prediction in the Río Yaqui Basin, Mexico. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 47(4), pp. 991-1005, DOI: 10.1175/2007JAMC1575.1.

Rob Nicholas :: Publications - Robert E. Nicholas